Image: Adobe Stock
The wheels of South Africa’s automotive sector are back in motion, but with a weak return to the country’s battered domestic and export markets in June, the industry faces an uphill climb ahead.
Image: Adobe Stock
The wheels of South Africa’s automotive sector are back in motion, but with a weak return to the country’s battered domestic and export markets in June, the industry faces an uphill climb ahead.
This was the sombre outlook of industry’s representative body, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa), when it released its latest new vehicle sales figures recorded over June 2020, on Wednesday 1 July.
Reflecting significant declines in year-on-year (June 2019 against June 2020) sales in all but two vehicle segments the organisation monitors, Naamsa warned that:
“2020 will be a difficult year for the industry with a significant projected decline in the new vehicle market and will be testing the renowned resilience of the industry”.
Naamsa, which represents 41 automotive companies and pegged total automotive revenue in South Africa in 2019 at R500-billion, was referring primarily to domestic vehicle sales, with the body reflecting a cautiously more optimistic outlook for exports going forward.
While sales were markedly up from the previous two months, the new vehicle market remained under severe pressure.
Linking the performance of the industry’s vehicle exports to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its duration, Naamsa noted in its commentary on the overall industry that the domestic automotive industry’s major export destinations were however beginning to ease their lockdown restrictions. And that “vehicle export numbers are anticipated to start gaining momentum again.”
Naamsa was however clear that it anticipated significant declines in vehicle export activity globally, for segment as as a whole and for the duration of the year. This was attributed primarily to the slowdown in the global economy in the wake of the pandemic and accompanying lockdowns in markets around the world.
“The outlook on domestic demand for new vehicle continues to remain under severe pressure. Middle-class disposable income was already under huge strain prior to the national lockdown resulting from COVID-19, which has significantly exacerbated the already weak macro-economic climate in the country,” said the body, citing National Treasury expectations of a 7.2% contraction in the economy in 2020.
These facts about June 2020 sales reflect the total market sales in terms of total number of units sold by each manufacturer.
Echoing Naamsa on Wednesday, prominent vehicle finance house Wesbank acknowledged the industry’s first month back in full operation and the start of its recovery, while noting the restart had not translated into a return to the “usual levels of sales pre-COVID-19”.
The financier said the market continues to remain under “immense pressure”.
“New vehicle sales for June continued its recovery as the entire motor industry returned to business under Level 3 regulations. Some of the industry had begun operating again during May under more stringent Level 4 conditions,” said Wesbank.
Pointing to the sales declines reflected in Naamsa’s June figures, Webank said however that this had come despite “high levels of demand as evidenced by WesBank’s application data, which was active at levels experienced towards the end of last year and at higher volumes than June 2019”.
“There were a number of key changes to market behaviour that could be the beginning of new trends as car buyers adapt to short-term budget pressures as a result of the pandemic.”
Wesbank marketing and communications head Lebogang Gaoaketse.
“We expect these may become longer-term changes as the impact of COVID-19 ripples through the value chain and vehicle purchase decisions face new fundamental foundations.”
Wesbank said most notable of these was the uptake of fixed-rate deals, an opportunity provided by the particularly low interest rate environment.
Producing much-needed relief for indebted customers, South Africans have enjoyed a 2.5% reduction in interest rates since March, but, according to Gaoaketse, this may be short-lived.
“While rates will inevitably need to increase again in the short- to medium-term as outlined in the Supplementary Budget, consumers and business have taken advantage of the opportunity on new deals during June.”
Wesbank also reported an increase in its average deal size for the period under review.
“WesBank’s average deal size has also increased substantially. Increases in deal size between 10% and 15% across new and used vehicles compared to June 2019 either indicates a stronger appetite or demand for quality stock based on price inflation, or an increase in the portion of debt in every deal,” explained Gaoaketse.
“Market activity is expected to remain low for the remainder of the year as the uncertainties of the pandemic continue to bring pressure to bear, for consumers and business alike,” continued the executive.
“Household budgets were already under pressure before the lockdown and within an economy that is now expected to shrink 7.2%, many potential buyers will delay their purchase decisions. June sales begin to provide a picture of what to expect for the remainder of the year.
“While that picture provides many challenges for both buyers and sellers, it includes positive elements that will test the industry’s resilience to survive,” concluded Gaoaketse.