ESKOM: Is a ‘blacked out’ festive season on the way?

Eskom officials anticipate regular blackouts in December and January, contradicting Minister Ramokgopa’s claim of power stability.

The Daily Maverick revealed a 30-page presentation on November 22, projecting daily blackouts between stages 1 and 3.

In the best-case scenario, there could be reliance on fewer unplanned breakdowns at Eskom power stations.

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ESKOM ANTICIPATES REGULAR BLACKOUTS THIS FESTIVE SEASON

For both months, the worst-case scenario includes daily load shedding between stages 4 and 6, offering no relief. Peak residual use is expected to range from 23 000 MW to 27 000 MW.

Planned outages are predicted to be between 6 800 MW and 10 100 MW due to offline generating units undergoing maintenance.

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Unplanned outages exceeding 16 000 MW are expected, causing electricity shortfalls over 4 000 MW. Eskom foresees the necessity of rolling blackouts.

The 2024–2025 outlook is dire due to rising demand and uncomfortable unplanned blackouts, which pose a systemic threat.

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This contradicts Minister Ramokgopa’s assurance of fewer December blackouts, attributing it to lower industrial demand.

MINISTER SAID THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CUTS

However, historical data reveals December’s susceptibility to power station issues due to hotter conditions.

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Minister Ramokgopa places hope in the return online of units 2 and 5 at the Kusile Power Station, aiming to provide Eskom with sufficient capacity to prevent extensive blackouts.

Koeberg, providing 1,860 MW, constitutes 5% of Eskom’s total electricity generation. The station’s reactors, in operation for nearly 40 years, are the continent’s largest.

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