Report: COVID-19 pandemic could likely last for another two years

The novel coronavirus – which first broke out in Wuhan, China back in December 2019 – will likely be around for another 18 to 24 months. The rise of COVID-19 infections will only fizzle out once herd immunity has set in.

The CIDRAP Viewpoint report is based on the study of previous pandemics and provides us with three possible outcomes. Unfortunately, none of the three projections sees the immediate demise of the disease.

That’s not the news any of us want to hear. It seems Mother Nature wants us to stay in our rooms a little bit longer. Here are the three possible COVID-19 scenarios:

Three possible COVID-19 pandemic scenarios

A series of ‘peaks and valleys’

In the first scenario, the novel coronavirus pandemic which has most of the Earth in isolation or lockdown in one form or another will continue in a series of “peaks and valleys”. The report explains:

“The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures are in place and how they are eased.”

Worst case scenario

In the second instance, the current outbreak will likely result in a much larger peak later this year. According to the report, it could echo the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

“This pattern will require the re-institution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down the spread of infection; and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to the 1918 – 1919 pandemic.”

The slow burn

In the third scenario, the pandemic will gradually fade away, with the smallest peak in infections to take place around 2022. The report also pointed out that a vaccine “could help, but not quickly”.

“Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for re-instituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.”

In addition, the research team say that they cannot say at this stage which “kinds of challenges could arise during vaccine development”. And challenges could delay the timeline.

COVID-19 duration research: Conclusion

Countries around the world are already lifting restrictions, including South Africa. We’ve gone from level 5 of total lockdown to level 4, which sees thousands of employees returning to work.

In addition, the exercise restrictions memo – which stipulates that social distancing is still vital at all times – clearly didn’t make it to Capetonians, who swarmed the Promenade in Seapoint, with nary a 2-metre rule in sight.

Let’s not forget Elon Musk’s twitter rant about “freeing” Americans. However, the researchers point out that lifting restrictions will cost lives, “especially in places that do it without careful controls”. The CIDRAP report concludes:

“Whichever scenario the pandemic follows – assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures – we must prepare for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hotspots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas”.

COVID-19 statistics

As of Saturday 2 May 2020, South Africa recorded 5 951 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 116 deaths. Global cases stand at 3 422 480; with a total of 240 337 deaths.

In South Africa, 2 382 patients have recovered, while the global figure for recovery stands at 1 093 158. Sadly, The United States (US) was hit the hardest.

To date, 1 132 038 cases have been reported, and 65 783 deaths in total. New cases have also spiked in the United Kingdom, which now has a total of 177 454 confirmed cases; and Russia, with a total of 124 054 cases.