Is democracy under the ANC in terminal decline or is it only the growth pains of a multiparty democracy?

The main speakers were Prof Koos Malan, a constitutional expert from the University of Pretoria, Dr Ineke van Kessel, a Dutch historian connected to the African Studies Centre in Leiden and Dr Heinrich Matthee, a strategy advisor and risk analyst who compiled a comprehensive report for Monitor on “The “ANC’s hybrid regime, civil rights and risks to business: Democratic decline and state capture in South Africa.”

From the outset Prof Malan contrasted the current political situation with the ‘miracle image’ that the world in general associated with the Mandela era. Malan highlighted the “distinctive totalitarian zeal” with which the ANC is pursuing the National Democratic Revolution through their notorious ‘cadre deployment’ and the consequent negative outcomes, such as overall “deterioration of the state”, which is of course quite apparent in the Escom debacle, the collapse of many municipalities, and the ineffective and corrupt police services. Matthee’s main assertion in his report is that SA has regressed from a flawed democracy to a hybrid regime under Zuma’s presidency. That implies that the main influence on power has moved from Parliament and the elections to the non-accountable, quarreling factions in and around the ruling tripartite alliance. “State institutions are now largely politically partisan, reinforcing a hybrid regime” Matthee is convinced that the high levels of state debt and the ANC’s internal funding problems will force it to try and raise extra income through increased taxes, and make it more dependent on patrons such as Russia and China. All these factors are not conducive to business in general and foreign direct investment specifically. In 1995 South Africa ranked 42nd on the The Economic Freedom of the World Report’s list. By 2014 it has dropped to 93rd.

Dr van Kessel immediately questioned the notion that “democratic decline might lead to instability – instability is a threat to the investment climate” by stating that “business is quite often comfortable with non- democratic regimes, as we have seen in – for example – China, Malaysia or in apartheid South Africa.” She did however concede that the decline in democracy is a cause for concern. Van Kessel identified South Africa’s massive unemployment as “the ticking time bomb” and not the ANC‘s factionalism, patronage and corruption. She cited various examples of hybrid regimes in acknowledged mature democracies, such as the influence of the National Rifle Association on the way members of the US Congress vote. She also reminded the audience, that in the past, the National Party had its own form of ‘cadre deployment’ through the Broederbond. She feels that the overall framing of the report reflects “a rather doctrinaire economic liberalism” Van Kessel in contrast would welcome more government intervention by the ANC in the mining sector, the protection of the environment and pressurising business to implement existing agreements. She recited the example of the state’s role in the development of Dutch coal mines in the post war era.

Over to Prof Malan again, who forcefully pointed to the current weaknesses in the ANC state; “that since 94, in the matter of transformation it is forever starting everything anew, while neglecting to maintain what exists, with the result that it is reminded by potholes in the roads, poisonous water, unscheduled power blackouts, preventable deaths in state hospitals etc. of the folly of years of neglect and failure to gradually improve that which exists.”

Matthee’s report also includes the widespread implications of the now notorious Investment Bill, which, once it becomes law will make the state the custodian of the country’s mineral resources, this would include all other investments such as companies, equities, land, movables, and intellectual property. This would apply to both foreign as well as domestic investors. Mathee warns that “Any South African who owns a home; car; or unit trusts is vulnerable to the Investment Bill’s provisions.” It is not surprising then that the South African Institute of Race Relations has stated that the Investment Bill in combination with the Restitution Bill, could “spell the end of private property rights in South Africa – not just in agriculture but across the economy.”

There were also important positive factors mentioned by van Kessel, such as the fact that the mass media in South Africa is still independent, the existence of a vibrant civil society, the about turn by the government in the treatment of HIV/AIDS and the spectacular growth of Afriforum, which has used the courts very effectively in the advancement minority rights.

The evening was amiably concluded with a social get together and there was still enough time to explore the delightful streets and cafes of Den Haag afterwards.