Black-Boks Thinking: redemptio

CARDIFF, WALES – NOVEMBER 26: Pieter-Steph du Toit of South Africa is tackled by Gethin Jenkins and Tomas Francis of Wales during the international match between Wales and South Africa at Principality Stadium on November 26, 2016 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

Black-Boks Thinking: redemption from the wreckage of two years under Allister

I’ve always wondered what the obsession is with a 4-year cycle between Rugby World Cups.

Black-Boks Thinking: redemptio

CARDIFF, WALES – NOVEMBER 26: Pieter-Steph du Toit of South Africa is tackled by Gethin Jenkins and Tomas Francis of Wales during the international match between Wales and South Africa at Principality Stadium on November 26, 2016 in Cardiff, Wales. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

For the last 14 international seasons, SA Rugby has neatly bookended its head coaching tenures with World Cups. Every time (four occasions) without fail, we are assigned a coach for a set 4-year period. There seems to be a fascination with forgetting the preceding period and focusing on the next global showpiece tournament.

If the latest coaching tenure has proved anything, it is that SA Rugby has serious flaws in its thinking: while the well-publicised structural issues are of definite concern, they are merely a symptom of the way the game is set up in South Africa. We’re too bloody concerned with ‘building a team for the next World Cup’ than actually building progress in each of the perennial 3 phases of the Springbok calendar: June internationals, Rugby Championship, and European tour.

Yes, Jake White took on a team in tatters in 2004, and while his vision was to build a team to win the 2007 World Cup, the changes he made were immediate, decisive and effective. Even if you argue he had a 4-year mindset and succeeded, well, perhaps look at his third year in charge and see what a total write-off it was and realise then that this 4-year obsession for so long has damaged our game.

While the 2017 Coetzee scorecard has certainly improved in number compared to 2016 – it’s also easy to suggest that the Albany and Dublin results were two aberrations in an otherwise okay year – the quality of our defeated opposition needs to be looked at without the blinkers on.

In fact, the only game this entire year where the Boks can really hold their heads up high was against the All Blacks at Newlands; again, another loss. I guess that’s more than we said for 2016’s efforts, which was a ‘fiasco’, in Coetzee’s own recent words. Looking back now, he’s done a Trump and effectively admitted that he was lying after every humbling in 2016, and wasn’t merely presenting a brave face and defiant stance.

He and the squad wax lyrical about how good the environment and culture is. Well, yoghurt is also a culture, but in fact, it’s just sour milk with a few feel-good bacteria thrown into the mix. The fans really don’t care how fluffy it is to be in each other’s company. They never did. Stop selling us this bullshit. We want results.

If there was even a hint after two years of a defined gameplan or even a plan B, or elimination of basic errors, consistency of performance, and admitting that certain selections aren’t working out, the fans would be more forgiving.

In a high-performance environment, being able to learn from one’s mistakes and apply course correction and remedies on the fly, is known as “black box thinking”. It is mirrored from the process following an aeroplane crash: identify failure scenarios, define a strategy to remove or mitigate said failures, and execute strategy. Repeat. No grounding planes for years. No firing all the engineers.

Unfortunately, Coetzee Airlines does need to be grounded and the engineers do need to be let go because they have failed to assess the black box.

Two years is enough time for a new coach to turn things around and it is only now that is the correct time to start focusing on the World Cup.

Next week’s decision on Allister Coetzee’s contract will ultimately decide the 2018 and 2019 outcomes for the Springboks: if he stays, it’s all over and you may as well start supporting Georgia or Canada.

Choose wisely, SA Rugby. Choose wisely.