EMPANGENI, SOUTH AFRICA JULY 18: President Jacob Zuma during a Nelson Mandela Memorial Lecture to commemorate Mandela Day on July 18, 2017 in Empangeni, South Africa. Zuma said, there were constant attempts to put Mandela on a pedestal and make him seem better than other black people and his ANC comrades. (Photo by Gallo Images / The Times / Thuli Dlamini)
EMPANGENI, SOUTH AFRICA JULY 18: President Jacob Zuma during a Nelson Mandela Memorial Lecture to commemorate Mandela Day on July 18, 2017 in Empangeni, South Africa. Zuma said, there were constant attempts to put Mandela on a pedestal and make him seem better than other black people and his ANC comrades. (Photo by Gallo Images / The Times / Thuli Dlamini)
Political analysts at Citi Research have stated their belief that Jacob Zuma is ready to delay the ANC leadership vote, due on Monday 18th December.
They made their prediction following the upheaval in the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal branch. Pro-Zuma MP Sihle Zikalala has had his election to power declared ‘invalid’ by Pietermaritzburg High Court.
There’s a chance that pro-Ramaphosa politician Senzo Mchunu could regain the seat he was dislodged from back in 2015. That would put the Deputy President in the strongest possible position for ANC leadership. It would also scupper JZ’s plan to have Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma replace him in December.
How likely is Zuma to postpone the ANC December Electives?
Gina Schoeman is a representative of Citi Research. She sees the ‘volatile’ political climate as a cause for concern regarding Zuma’s next move:
“December is still a long way off. We have our doubts that Zuma will accept the potential outcomes from a ruling that obviously favours a Ramaphosa-win.”
“We expect politics to become even more volatile from here on. Negative campaigning is already under way, as are acts of violence (in provinces). The court ruling means the balance of power in KZN could now flip to pro-Ramaphosa.”
Schoeman and her colleagues also indicated that any changes to the scheduled December electives made by Zuma could do more serious damage to the economy.
*Pretends to be shocked that JZ would somehow be involved in destabilising South Africa*.
How would delaying the ANC leadership handover harm SA?
The Citi Research team believe the growing risk of postponement would have be a singificantly negative event in terms of SA’s ratings outlook. If there is anything lower than junk, we’re sure Zuma can find it.
They also cited investor confidence in the country and the rand as two financial cornerstones that would suffer terribly from an altered electives date.
It says a lot about Jacob Zuma that he’d act like the spoilt kid who’d take his ball home when his team began losing. It says even more about South Africa that no-one reading this will be surprised.
