local lockdown

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SA experts call for harder ‘local lockdowns’ – with TWO provinces in trouble

Local lockdowns have had limited success in South Africa – but some regions are being held back by high COVID-19 rates elsewhere.

local lockdown

Photo: AdobeStock

The so-called ‘Delta Wave’ of COVID-19 is not behaving in a manner we are used to – and it has prompted some economic experts to lead the charge for more ‘local lockdowns’: Usually, when cases peak in South Africa, they don’t take very long to plummet. But this time around, the data is sort of, well, all over the place…

Latest COVID-19 numbers: Why aren’t cases falling?

New cases have dropped, increased, and plateaued throughout August, in a way that has been difficult to interpret. One potential factor behind these erratic figures relates to how the third wave has spread across South Africa: It was first picked up in Gauteng, which saw an almighty peak before its numbers came down again last month.

The other provinces have slowly seen their numbers tick up, before dropping again. However, a majority of these administrative regions are seeing new infections in the ascendancy, pushing the national rate up again. This mix-and-match of varying COVID-19 trajectories has left us with a very bizarre wave pattern.

Are local lockdowns the way forward?

The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) has raised concerns about this struggle to squash the high number of cases.

They now believe that the best solution for the country would be to put provinces with high numbers of newly recorded cases into a ‘harder version’ of lockdown, while allowing the rest of the country to live under eased restrictions.

  • If that was the case today, both KwaZulu-Natal AND the Western Cape would be the worst affected:

“New cases are still rising, largely driven by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape. The test-positivity rate remains high, too. As such, government announced that SA would remain at Level 3 of the national lockdown for the next two weeks.”

“With differing trajectories between provinces likely to remain a feature, it might be more sensible to start looking at different lockdown regulations between provinces/regions. While this comes with practical implementation challenges, this would boost activity in areas with relatively low(er) case numbers.”

BER Statement