New lockdown roadmap: Could SA be restriction-free by September?

It seems quite fanciful to even contemplate such a concept while in the grip of our third wave – but financial experts have published three possible paths South Africa could take on ‘lockdown roadmap’, with the best case scenario forecasting a TOTAL LIFTING of restrictions when September rolls around – that’s just 10 weeks away.

Lockdown forecasts for South Africa

Price Waterhouse Cooper are the analysts behind the so-called ‘roadmap’. They have updated the guidance they gave at the start of the year, which now seems comparatively conservative. No move to Level 1 was predicted, despite it being in place throughout Spring. However, it now looks like PWC have decided to throw caution to the wind.

Their new set of lockdown predictions are much more optimistic. Believing that the third wave of COVID-19 will peak at some point in July, this will allow cases to drop before alert phases can be relaxed. PWC don’t see a return to the harder forms of lockdown (Levels 4 and 5), but in the worst case scenario, they can see ‘strict rules’ being added to Level 3.

Is this our new ‘lockdown roadmap’?

The three columns, from left to right, predict the best outcome, the middle-ground outcome, and the worst outcome. With rose-tinted specs on, an increasingly vaccinated South Africa *might* be able to dump lockdown laws completely by September. The baseline predicts a long spell in Level 1, and the gloomier forecast urges restraint until summer.

What does the future hold?

Responding to the research, Price Waterhouse Cooper insist that the severity of the third wave will dictate the pace – and direction – of their lockdown roadmap. However, they remain bullish, and feel that economic recovery will be prioritised once the threat to human life is significantly reduced. Let’s hope they’ve got this right, then.

“PWC’s economic scenarios for 2021 are strongly influenced by different perspectives about the severity of the third wave of COVID-19 infections. The severity of the mid-year wave, and the accompanying strictness of associated lockdowns, will primarily determine the nature of the economic recovery.”

“With expectations of even stricter lockdown regulations from July to combat the third wave of the pandemic, our economic scenarios still provide for a wide range of possible economic growth rates in 2021 and 2022. On a positive note, current inflation dynamics should allow the central bank to keep lending rates on hold for the remainder of 2021.”