IRP: This is what SA’s energy mix could look like in ten years

Energy and Minerals Minister, Gwede Mantashe, is adamant on the fact that the Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) is the mid-term solution to South Africa’s electricity problems.

What is the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)?

First, a bit of clarity. The government has stressed that the IRP is not the Energy Plan. Instead, it is a national electricity plan, a subset of the Integrated Energy Plan.

This is by no means the long-term solution to South Africa’s energy crisis. According to the government, the IRP is a mere “plan that directs the expansion of the electricity supply over the given period.”

What our energy mix could look like in ten years

Currently, South Africa gets about 95% of its energy from coal-generating power stations. These, like Medupi and Kusile, cost Eskom billions to operate. Yet, they still do not generate enough power to keep the power grid stable.

The IRP is a mid-term solution to that. In a recent interview, Mantashe noted that it was time to reduce the reliance we have on coal-generated power and allow other forms of energy supply to contribute towards generating electricity.

Not only will this be in line with the commitments South Africa made, at the climate change conference held in Paris in 2015, to reduce coal emissions, but it will also eliminate the element of risk when unwarranted issues surface at power stations.

“We have allowed, in the IRP, space for various technologies so that we cannot depend on one (source of energy). We have learned, quite nastily, that depending on coal all the time — when coal got its back against the wall, we were all running and spinning on our tales.

“We must continue having a balanced source of energy,” Mantashe said.

The minister admitted, though, that they will be treading very carefully in this transitional phase, so as not to swing from one extreme to another, like a pendulum.

According to the IRP, this is what South Africa’s energy mix could look like in the next ten years:

• Coal: 59%
• Nuclear: 5%
• Hydro: 8%
• Solar power: 6%
• Wind: 18%
• Gas and storage: 2%

Mantashe revealed, during last week’s media briefing, that the time has come for South Africa to begin its integration into nuclear energy. He admitted that the failing coal power stations, like Medupi and Kusile, were going to be around for a very long time.

The intention, he said, was to find ways to ensure that those coal power stations continue to work for us, in collaboration with modular nuclear plants that were going to be developed soon.