Photo: Supplied by Saws

Tropical Storm Eloise ‘set to cause havoc’ – but will it reach South Africa?

Several countries on the continent are bracing for the intense impact of Tropical Storm Eloise – and South Africa isn’t exactly out of harm’s way.

by Tom Head

18-01-2021 14:10

in Weather

Photo: Supplied by Saws

The South African Weather Service (Saws) has released a press statement on Monday, warning against the dangers of Tropical Storm Eloise. Intense bouts of rain and wind are set to lash several south-eastern African nations – and South Africa may also find itself in the firing line by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Eloise forecast for Monday 18 January

Saws indicate that the business end of Eloise will reach Mozambique on Friday, and they’ve charted its progress so far:

As of Monday 18 January, Eloise is positioned at 14.2 degrees South and 56.7 degrees East.
The storm is moving briskly at 26km/h, in a south-westerly direction.
As it intensifies further to a Severe Tropical Storm, sustained winds are likely to exceed 100km/h.
Eloise is due to make landfall in Madagascar on Tuesday, before hitting Mozambique on Friday.
What’s more, South Africa may get a small sample of this extreme weather event…

“Tropical Storm Eloise has developed and is currently positioned off the north-eastern quadrant of Madagascar. At the current time, Eloise is classified to be a Moderate Tropical Storm – but nevertheless, it’s set to intensify in the coming days. It will require further monitoring from Friday, as it approaches Mozambique”
“This storm has the potential to make landfall along the southern Mozambican coastline, between Beira and Vilanculos, during the coming weekend. Eloise may also move on a more southerly parabolic path, which could potentially take it further down the Mozambican coastline and possibly into the north-eastern Lowveld of South Africa.”
Saws statement

Madagascar, Mozambique in the firing line – but what about South Africa?

The chance of Tropical Storm Eloise doing serious damage in Mzansi has been downplayed significantly by Saws, however. They’ve branded this a ‘low probability event’, but remain on standby for the worst-case scenario.

“At this time, the speculative possibility of Tropical Storm Eloise directly affecting SA is just one of a multitude of possible outcomes, given the long lead-time, and should be considered to be a ‘low probability / high uncertainty’ worst-case scenario.”
Saws statement