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US Election: Where are we likely to get a recount?

Forget extra-time: The US Election is potentially going into penalties, a cup replay, and a second-leg all in one go. Here are the states facing a ballot recount.

recount states us election

Photo: Unsplash

“It ain’t over yet”, Joe Biden defiantly stated on Wednesday morning. The Democratic nominee made his first public address after the polls closed in the US Election, where he was – potentially – facing a ‘red wave’. The in-person votes were counted quicker than the mail-in ballots, briefly pushing Donald Trump into pole position: Two days later, a recount or two is now the incumbent’s only hope of remaining president.

Patience, they say, is a virtue. Joe Biden has made up some serious ground. He came from behind to claim Michigan and Wisconsin a little over 24 hours ago. Now he’s likely to secure slender leads in several other battleground states, as the last few votes trickle through and propel him to a historic electoral victory.

How do recounts work in the US Election?

In every US Election, ‘electoral’ is the operative word. The college of votes which are assigned to each state, once added together, will decide who wins the race to the White House. Fighting for these ballots is often a brutal scrap, and recounts in some of the more marginal regions are very commonplace.

The secretary of each state currently in play will “canvass” the ballots – a process that sees them add-up the totals again, reconcile any errors and then confirm all the valid votes. This will be a much quicker process than we’ve seen in the past few days because all the votes are already in one place.

Which states are likely to face a recount? Rules for Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania:

Arizona

Recounts are triggered automatically if a canvass finds a race is within a 0.1% (one-tenth of 1%) margin of victory. Whoever wins this state will take it by a narrow margin.

  • Biden: 50.1%
  • Trump: 48.5%
  • Margin: 1.6%
  • Votes left: 10%
  • Electoral College votes available: 11
  • Recount territory: Not yet, but not impossible. Trump’s closing the gap and it could get super-close later on.

Georgia

A candidate can request a recount if trailing the winner by less than 1% – and the request has to be made within two business days of result certification – that’ll take us to Tuesday 11 November in this statistical dead-heat:

  • Biden: 49.4%
  • Trump: 49.4%
  • Margin: Biden leads by just over 1 000 votes. Razor-thin stuff…
  • Votes left: Less than 1%.
  • Electoral College votes available: 16
  • Recount territory: Definitely. Although Biden is likely to pull away further, he won’t get near the 1% mark.

Nevada

Nevada will be one of the last states to post a votes total. There’s no given limit for a recount here, but a losing candidate can file a recount request within three days of the canvass. Biden still retains a narrow lead here.

The Supreme Court are also involved with canvassing, and a final recount result may only be added by Tuesday 24 November. Nevada, you really don’t have a rush in you, hey?

  • Biden: 49.4%
  • Trump: 48.5%
  • Margin: 0.9%
  • Votes left: 11%
  • Electoral College votes available: Six
  • Recount territory: Yes. It’s likely to be the second-favourite behind Georgia.

Pennsylvania

A recount is triggered automatically if the margin of victory is within 0.5%. It must be requested five days after the election took place, which is Sunday 8 November. A fully recounted vote must be completed by the second Thursday 13 November.

  • Trump: 49.5%
  • Biden: 49.2%
  • Margin: 0.3%
  • Votes left: 5%
  • Electoral College votes available: 20
  • Recount territory: More than likely. Biden is set to overtake Trump here, but again, it will be by another small majority.

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