CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA – FEBRUARY 19: A view of the Ratel 90 along Muizenberg Beach on February 19, 2019 in Cape Town, South Africa. The SANDF takes up positions in preparations for the night shoot, the event forms part of National Armed Forces Day and is rotated among the provinces on an annual basis. (Photo by Gallo Images/Jeffrey Abrahams)
CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA – FEBRUARY 19: A view of the Ratel 90 along Muizenberg Beach on February 19, 2019 in Cape Town, South Africa. The SANDF takes up positions in preparations for the night shoot, the event forms part of National Armed Forces Day and is rotated among the provinces on an annual basis. (Photo by Gallo Images/Jeffrey Abrahams)
Some of the top security analysts in South Africa have raised the alarm about the country’s future as a functioning democracy – just weeks after the World Economic Forum expressed its own doubts about Mzansi.
Is South Africa becoming a failed state? Experts troubled by current path
Gerbrandt van Heerden, of the Centre for Risk Analysis, has discussed findings made in the CRA’s recent ‘Quality of Life’ report. The findings paint a fair bleak picture for SA in the short and long term.
Van Heerden is concerned that South Africa will veer towards ‘failed state’ territory in the years ahead. Voting patterns, economic hardships, and the perceived incompetence of the ruling party have all been identified as factors which could put the nation at serious risk. In total, there are five areas of concern to note:
- ANC will become more populist: Losing power in urban centres ‘will force huge policy shifts’, based on public opinion.
- Coalitions will be unstable: The balance of power in key regions is split, and may worsen service delivery issues.
- More violent unrest planned: Riots on the same scale of July 2021 could follow as poverty persists.
- ANC inability to reform: The party’s failure to make major changes has to potential to erode the rule of law.
- Increased privatisation: In the absence of a functioning state, demand for private security and education will rise.
Another ‘threat to democracy’ warning for South Africa
The World Economic Forum (WEF) published its Global Risks Report for 2022 earlier in January, assessing the biggest threats to over 100 countries – and the forecast for South Africa is grim.
Economic, environmental, and geopolitical factors are all considered by the researchers, and in amongst the challenges facing Mzansi in the years ahead, a total state collapse has flown to the top of the list. Prolonged economic stagnation, various unemployment crises, and the failure of public infrastructure were also flagged.
