SA’s slow vaccine rollout: At this rate, it’ll take 18 years ‘to reach herd immunity’

South Africa could not afford to slip-up in its biggest-ever vaccine drive. However, we have. Majorly: The government was slow to purchase COVID-killing jabs, and they have been just as lethargic in rolling them out. Little over 2 000 people were vaccinated in the most recent 24-hour period, and the concerns about herd immunity don’t end there.

How long will it take to reach herd immunity in South Africa, going at this current pace?

Data specialists at Media Hack have developed a tool that calculates how long it will take to vaccinate 67% of the South African population. That target is seen as the ‘magic number’ to create herd immunity from COVID-19, thus allowing Mzansi to scrap lockdown restrictions and begin its post-pandemic life.

However, based on the current rates of vaccination, this seems a long, long way away. If the average pace of ‘daily jabs’ continues, South Africa “will not reach herd immunity until 2039”. The numbers are utterly staggering…

• – To obtain herd immunity South Africa is aiming to vaccinate 67% of the population. That is approximately 40 million people.
• – So far, 147,753 vaccinations have been administered since the rollout started on 17 February 2021.
• – That’s an average of just 5 910 vaccinations a day.
• – If vaccinations continue at this pace, it will take 18 years, six months, and eight days to reach the 67% target.

Vaccine blunders ensures arrival of COVID-19 third wave

Of course, it’s worth mentioning that the rollout is likely to speed up soon – a new consignment of Johnson and Johnson shots are landing on our shores this week, but there are only 40 000 extra doses to go around. New shipments from COVAX and Pfizer will be distributed next month, but still, things continue to move at a snail’s pace.

This glacial vaccine programme has all but assured the arrival of a ‘third resurgence’ in COVID-19 cases. That means SA will likely enter a tougher period of lockdown – again – to curb another wave of hospitalisations and deaths. Dean Macpherson, the shadow trade minister, has been left apoplectic with the ‘mismanagement’ of these inoculations.

“All of 2 209 people were vaccinated [on Monday]. We are headed straight into the third wave because of the incompetence of this government to buy vaccines and embark on a mass rollout of them. We are in deep trouble if this persists.”

Dean Macpherson