2021 Elections: ANC/EFF coalition could win in these NINE municipalities

Depending on your political affiliation, the marriage of the ANC and the EFF in a coalition government will either be a sensible pairing, or a living nightmare. But, if we’ve learned one thing from the results of the 2021 Elections so far, it’s perhaps that the future of South Africa will be built on this type of partnership.

Choosing a coalition partner: Who will side with who?

Several major metros are likely to go without an outright winner, leaving the ANC and DA to try and butter-up some prospective partners in government. The ANC would be well-placed to partner with the likes of the IFP, UDM, and the PAC – whereas the DA is in a position to seek support from parties like the FF Plus, ActionSA, and Cope.

However, there are some non-negotiables. ActionSA has said they will not support an ANC government under any circumstances, so that alliance is a no-go. The DA has also put it on record that they will not do what they did in 2016, and try to work with the EFF in government again. That door is closed.

Will the ANC and the EFF work together?

However, there may be room for two of the three biggest parties in South Africa to jump into bed with each other. The ANC and the EFF may differ in many aspects, but there are overlapping lines in their circles of ideology. Previously, the EFF had ruled out working with the ANC on a local level – but that stance has since softened.

And, if the ANC and EFF do decide to work together, there are plenty of municipalities that might play host to this latest political experiment. We’ve found NINE locations where the ANC look set to fall short of the 50% needed to govern a region outright – but a partnership with the EFF alone would put them in office.

‘There are at least nine locations’ where an ANC/EFF coalition could rule

Two metros are involved, and a pair of municipalities have already counted all of their votes. The rest have all recorded at least 25% of ballots submitted so far, and some contests could prove to be much closer than others:

• Nelson Mandela Bay METRO, Eastern Cape: 25% of the vote complete – ANC 43.4%, EFF 6.97%.
• Ekurhuleni METRO, Gauteng: 38% of the vote complete – ANC 37.5%, EFF 13.34%.
• Thembelihle, Northern Cape: 100% of the vote complete – ANC 39%, EFF 24.5%.
• Ngwathe, Free State: 38% of the vote complete – ANC 46%, EFF 10%.
• Naledi, North West: 45% of the vote complete – ANC 42%, EFF 11.24%.
• Thabazimbi, Limpopo: 64% of the vote complete – ANC 48%, EFF 9.6%.
• Lekwa, Mpumalanga: 100% of the vote complete – ANC 42.03%, EFF 9.18%.
• Emfuleni, Gauteng: 36% of the vote complete – ANC 36.6%, EFF 15%.
• uMuziwabantu, KZN: 67% of the vote complete – ANC 47.3%, EFF 7%.

Sensational result out of Lekwa (Standerton) in Mpumalanga. ANC 13 (20) Lekwa Community Forum 6 DA 4 (5) EFF 3 (2) VF 3 ATM 1. History is made. For the first time ever the ANC falls below 50% in a Mpumalanga municipality.

— Wayne Sussman (@waynesussman) November 2, 2021