Could South Africa see a military coup in the near future?

As Zimbabwe begins it’s first full week without Mugabe, the nation is now allowing itself to dream of a better future under President Emmerson Mnangagwa. The ‘bloodless transition’ – and not military coup – was a textbook dislodging of a dictator.

So you may be able to forgive South Africans for developing ‘coup envy’ in the last fortnight. Jacob Zuma’s approval ratings are lower than low, and his toxic brand of crony politics have infected the ANC.

Zuma will be handing the reigns of leadership over soon. But he has done a lasting amount of damage to his party, the economy, and South Africa’s reputation as a democracy. Anger towards Zuma is quickly becoming anger towards the ANC. Could this vitriol eventually be responsible for a Zimbabwe-style turn of events?

Could South Africa see a military coup?

In the same way Robert Mugabe completely trashed Zim’s economy, JZ certainly harbours most responsibility for the nosedive taken by South Africa’s. It’s no co-incidence that growth is slowing, and that the country has officially slipped into ‘junk status’ as Zuma co-ordinates a looting of state resources.

Economist Dawie Roodt believes that these types of fiscal abuses from SA’s leadership is ‘leading us down the same path as Zimbabwe’. Roodt states that stealing from taxpayers leads to stealing from investors. Once the investors have been scared off, that puts us on a ‘weak growth trajectory’.

With no way of repaying debt, inflation would soon accelerate. Mzansi will, in Roodt’s eyes, be brought to it’s knees, facing the same crisis Zimbabwe did back in 2008.

This has been pegged as the most likely route to a Zimbabwe-style transition. However, it all depends who is in power. It won’t be Jacob Zuma by 2019, but his loyalists could easily carry on his legacy

Role of 2019 elections

In two years, we will have a new president elected via a general election. If the ANC manage to maintain their grasp on political power, it’s more than likely South Africa’s commander in chief will be either Cyril Ramaphosa or Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

However, both of these candidates have served side by side with Zuma. Neither have been hyper-critical of JZ, and Ramaphosa has been his right-hand man for the last five years. Even the whispers of discontent have come just as their campaigns to assume the leadership began. How convenient.

If neither Cyril nor NDZ can stop the rot, many will feel it’s the same old, same old keeping South Africa imprisoned by incompetency. This is the most likely path for the seeds of discontent to be sewn.

Could SANDF take a stand against the government?

The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) have already showed a willingness to intervene in matters of political importance. Just last month, General Solly Shoke said his soldiers were ready to fight gang crime in Western Cape hotspots.

Zimbabwe’s coup worked because their army was united. They were all fiercely loyal to Emmerson Mnangagwa, and were very much on the same page when it came to removing Mugabe. Consider all branches of SA’s armed forces the opposite.

There isn’t much unity to be seen at any level, to be honest. Currently, the Military Veterans are having a leadership crisis of their own to deal with. Civilian soldiers are said to be rather dissenting of the ANC, with Julius Malema claiming that the army stand with the EFF.

Juju went as far as to say the army were ‘willing to turn their guns’ on President Zuma. Of course, his typical bellicose remarks weren’t properly fact-checked.

Strength in numbers for SAPS

Jakkie Cilliers is from the Institute of Security Studies. He believes that the ANC’s elite ruling class enjoy unequivocal support from the higher branches of the military. Commanders, generals and sergeants aren’t likely to rebel against any potential new leader, and they aren’t under the duress of any ANC candidate in particular.

Cilliers is supported by Ladysmith Gazette editor Rob Skinner. He believes that those divisions – and the strength of state-loyal SAPS – will mean that even an attempted coup would be snuffed out immediately.

“Our military is very divided and the chain-of-command so big that no elite units could hypothetically mobilise in sufficient strength to secure the country.”

“Lastly and most importantly is the strength of the SAPS, which outnumbers the army. Add to this our strong democracy and a strong entrenched ruling party and the chances of ever hypothetically mounting a military coup is zero to none in SA.”

‘Zero to none’

So it would seem the flames of revolution have been seriously doused by those in the know. A lot hinges on the direction South Africa will take after the 2019 election. If the ANC keep serving up this repetitive brand of “Zanu-PF light” cronyism, a broken economy could be the key to uniting a divided army.

But in reality, this is not what we want to see. Our democracy is 23 years old. If we start rolling the tanks in now, we’re undermining everything we fought for. The chances of a military coup are slim, and that’s how it should stay.