No-confidence vote for Mashaba? How the EFF could cost the mayor his job

It’s been a busy 24 hours for Johannesburg Mayor Herman Mashaba. Fresh from threatening the Gauteng premier David Makhura with legal action, the DA representative has teed off about an apparent plot to boot him from office.

Mashaba took to his Twitter account to condemn the clandestine plans, which were allegedly made public by SANCO. The department has an alliance towards the ANC, and they believe there is now a decent chance of kicking the mayor from his ivory tower. Based on the latest political situation, they may be correct.

While the motion will, no doubt, present various pretences to justify it, the simple truth is that the ANC has been trying to regain power in Johannesburg from day one.

— Herman Mashaba (@HermanMashaba) August 1, 2019

Why the EFF could decide Herman Mashaba’s fate

In 2016, Herman Mashaba gained 38% of the municipal vote to the ANC’s 45%. However, the DA man was able to rally the “smaller” parties behind him, eventually securing 144 seats to the ANC’s 125. Before their bitter divorce, the EFF were still in the mood to side with the Blues and gave their 30 votes to a coalition with Mashaba.

Their brief alliance has since soured spectacularly. The DA and the EFF – no longer united by the desire to oust Jacob Zuma from the presidency – have had precious little common ground to walk on, in the power-sharing arrangements set-up in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth.

EFF and the balance of power

In fact, they collapsed their agreement with the DA in the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality last year, following a volley of no-confidence motions and one defecting MP from the DA. Mayor Atholl Trollip had to fall on his sword.

But back in Johannesburg, the balance of power teeters on a knife-edge. There are 270 seats in the municipal chambers. But with the EFF vowing that they will never support the DA (or ANC) in these type of votes again, you can strike their 30 seats off the DA’s total, bringing them down to 114 seats with other parties.

Now that’s a major problem for the current governing party of Joburg, because the ANC alone have 121 seats in their name. Even if every minority party in the house then sided with the DA after an EFF abstention, it still wouldn’t be enough to secure a full house again.

How many seats do the DA and ANC have in Johannesburg?

Current vote share by each party

• ANC: 121
• DA: 104
• EFF: 30
• IFP: 5
• AIC: 4
• FF+: 1
• ACDP: 1
• Al-Jamah: 1
• UDM: 1
• Cope: 1
• Patriotic Alliance: 1

Current situation

• DA + coalition partners: 144
• ANC: 125
• Abstentions: 1

Without EFF support ahead of a motion of no confidence:

• ANC: 121
• DA: 104
• Non-voting EFF members: 30
• Remaining potential coalition partners: 15 (leaving the DA three seats short of the EFF)

Herman Mashaba slams “planned” motion of no confidence

We think that’s what can be called “a sticky situation”. Without EFF support, it looks like Herman Mashaba could indeed be kicked out of office, barring a highly-irregular scenario where he gets the votes from a few ANC members. In a statement released earlier this afternoon, Mashaba seems to be taking this threat very seriously.

“I have learnt through a march to the City last week, orchestrated by the ANC- aligned wing of SANCO, and attended by ANC Councillors in Johannesburg, that the ANC intends to table a motion of no confidence against me as the Mayor of Johannesburg.”

“Now that the taps of corruption have run dry and their looting of public finances is being exposed, the ANC is becoming increasingly desperate. The wish of our residents to keep the ANC out of government, along with the failures that characterised their administration, is under threat.” 

Herman Mashaba