Load shedding on THURSDAY – here is the updated schedule Images: Stock/Canva
Here is why Stage 11 load shedding could be implemented this winter
An analyst warned that Eskom could be implementing Stage 11 load shedding this winter. Brace yourselves! Here is the latest.
Load shedding on THURSDAY – here is the updated schedule Images: Stock/Canva
Eskom could be implementing Stage 11 load shedding this winter.
STAGE 11 LOAD SHEDDING COULD BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE WINTER
ALSO READ: Load shedding on THURSDAY: Here’s the UPDATED schedule
This is according to Virtual Energy and Power director Clyde Mallinson. He analysed historical winter load shedding data.
He said Eskom must lift the coal fleet’s capacity factor (CF) to at least 50%. This is if they want to prevent high levels of load-shedding over the winter months.
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HERE IS WHY:
“Load-shedding maximum and average monthly results based on coal fleet capacity factors as predicted for January and February,”
the caption accompanying his predictions on Twitter said.
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ESKOM’S COAL GENERATION FLEET – LESS THAN 40% OPERATIONAL IN FEB
In February 2022, he explained that Eskom’s coal generation fleet was so bad that less than 40% was operational.
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Capacity factor is a ratio of actual power output relative to the theoretical maximum that could have been output over a period.
HISTORICAL DATA TO PREDICT LEVELS OF LOAD SHEDDING FOR REST OF YEAR
Mallinson used historical data to predict the maximum and average levels of load shedding for the rest of the year.
“If we carry on as we are at the moment, the picture ain’t rosy for the coming winter.”
He explained this by creating two scenarios based on two assumptions. Namely a maximum (or worst-case scenario) and an average scenario.
STAGE 8 LOAD SHEDDING IN APRIL
In the maximum or worst-case scenario at this capacity factor, the country would be subjected to:
- Stage 8 load-shedding in April.
- Stage 9 load shedding in May, and
- Stage 11 load shedding in June.
After that, it will vary between stages 8, 9, and 10 before dropping to stage 7 load shedding in October 2023.
STAGE 9 LOAD SHEDDING IN MAY
The average scenario is that 2023’s load shedding will be similar to 2022.
The power utility would have to implement an average of stage 4 power cuts to stabilise the grid between April and September 2023, this is if its coal fleet CF remains at its current level of around 40%.
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STAGE 11 LOAD SHEDDING IN JUNE
If the utility coal fleet’s CF increases to around 50%, Mallinson predicted that Eskom would implement a maximum of stage 6 load-shedding in June.
This comes after several people warned of intensified load-shedding over the winter season. These people include former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter, Intellidex capital markets head Peter Attard Montalto, and former Eskom executive Robbie van Heerden,
