Covid-19 Third Wave: Here are 7 key facts you need to know

The National Institute for Communicable Diseases expects the third wave of Covid-19 to be lower than the second wave in the absence of a new variant it said in its latest report released on Monday night.

Here are seven key facts highlighted in the NICD’s latest report on the Covid-19 third wave that you need to know.

• The time from initial increase in transmission to the peak is on average 2-3 months.

• Across all age groups, hospital admissions are expected to be lower than in the second wave.

• Hospital admissions at a provincial level are dependent on the seroprevalence after second wave, age distribution, and prevalence of comorbidities; individual responses to increasing case numbers that reduce the potential for transmission (such as by reducing contacts) and the strength of and adherence to restrictions

• Monitoring trends in cases is the best indicator of when a third wave is likely to begin.
• The emergence of a highly transmissible new variant may result in a third  wave of the same size as the second wave or worse, especially if the variant provides an opportunity for immune escape.
• Delaying the start of the third wave allows more time for vaccination.
• The size of the third wave depends in large parts on the number of contacts people have

“The most important finding is that in the absence of a new variant the projected size of a potential third wave is strongly dependent on the combined individual and nationally directed responses to increasing incidence,” the NICD said.

“Under all scenarios the national peak daily hospital admissions for all age groups are projected to be lower than the second wave. With regards to the provincial projections, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to be lower for all provinces under all scenarios, with the exception of Gauteng. In Gauteng, two of the five scenarios projected the third wave to be more severe compared to its second,” the NICD said.

Read the full NICD report here.