COVID-19 may have already peaked – SA Medical Research Council

The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) has said the worst could be over for the country, in the fight against COVID-19.

The Council has cited its weekly report, which indicates that the coronavirus may have reached its peak in all the provinces by the end of July 2020.

The number of estimated excess deaths have begun to decrease, consistent with the trend in the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, it further said.

“To calculate ‘excess mortality’ in a given period, the research team look at the number of people who had died over this period compared to the number we would have expected to have died. The geographic pattern, as well as the age pattern, indicate that the excess deaths are related to COVID-19,” said SAMRC’s chief specialist scientist, Professor Debbie Bradshaw, on Wednesday, 12 August 2020.

SAMRC: ‘Trajectories different in provinces’

Bradshaw added that the extent of the virus’ spread varied from province to province.

“The Western Cape, the first province to experience community spread, stands out as having a much slower pandemic. It took several weeks to set in and is now taking time to recede,” she said.

While in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal there were much quicker increases.

She said they are still urging South Africans to continue to wear masks, practice physical distancing, hand hygiene and avoid crowds and congestion.

“Although these data do not have information about the medical cause of death apart from whether the cause was natural or unnatural, the data are invaluable as they provide a near real-time count of the total numbers of deaths from natural and unnatural causes”, Bradshaw added.

According to the council’s research, between 6 May and 4 August this year there were 33 478 excess deaths.

Of those recorded, 9 469 were in Gauteng, 8 591 in the Eastern Cape, 5 137 in KwaZulu-Natal, 1 856 in Free State, 1 522 in Mpumalanga, 1 122 in the North West, 982 in Limpopo and 386 in the Northern Cape.

COVID-19 in South Africa

The Council’s President and CEO, Professor Glenda Gray, has called on doctors to ensure accurate completion of death certificates – especially if it is COVID-19 related.

“It will be important in understanding the true impact of the pandemic,” Gray stressed.

“The downward turn of deaths is a positive sign that the virus may have peaked in some parts of the country and is in keeping with the epidemiological models of the pandemic.”