The race for the ANC leadership has been thrown into turmoil following a High Court ruling. The 2015 KZN elective conference was declared ‘unlawful and invalid’ by Pietermaritzburg Magistrates. Great news if your last name is Ramaphosa…
Five ANC members led by Vryheid councillor Lawrence Dube took the matter to court last year amid alleged irregularities in the arrangement, hosting and auditing of the conference held in November 2015.
By getting the result overturned, it has thrown a spanner in the works of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s presidential bid.
How a power struggle massively harms Dlamini-Zuma
In the 2015 conference, Sihle Zikalala (pro Zuma, and therefore pro-NDZ) ousted Senzo Mchunu (pro-Ramaphosa) from public office. However, Zikalala’s position of power has now become invalid.
That’s bad news for both Zumas: KwaZulu-Natal has the most ANC members of any other province and are seen as the key players in influencing the next president of the ruling party.
If the pro-Ramaphosa politician Senzo Mchunu is re-instated, it will dramatically flip the script and make Cyril the new favourite ahead of the assumed shoe-in, Dlamini Zuma.
Will the December Electives go ahead?
70% of ANC branches need to pass audits for December’s electives to go ahead. So far, six out of nine provinces have been audited. The Western & Eastern Capes plus the politically volatile KZN are only undergoing theirs now.
Who votes in the ANC electives?
There are a total of 2,454 branch delegates who get to cast a vote for the leadership. This is where the balance of power goes to the Deputy President…
Why is KwaZulu-Natal so important to the ANC?
- KZN represents 524 delegates. Ramaphosa has already been endorsed by the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga, who add another 702 delegates to the voting process.
- KwaZulu-Natal holds 21% of all ANC delegates, the most of any province. The Eastern Cape claims 16%, and Mpumalanga 12%.
So is Cyril Ramaphosa in complete control?
The 1,226 branch delegates gives Ramaphosa a projected vote share of 50% – a large majority over other candidates.
There’s an additional 271 individuals from the National Executive Committee (NEC) of 86, Integrity Committee (11), ANC Youth League (64), ANC Women’s League (64) and ministers or deputy ministers (46) who also cast a vote.
The High Court also ordered the ANC to foot the bill for half the legal costs of the applicants who challenged 2015’s outcome.
