Photo: Adobe Stock
Photo: Adobe Stock
Hard, oppressive measures may not be on the table, but it would appear that South Africans still face another gruelling year ahead in the battle against COVID-19. Forecasts shared by Price Waterhouse Cooper outline how they think the next 12 months will play out, via their latest ‘lockdown calendar’.
PWC’s economic experts frequently share these projections, with a commendable degree of accuracy. By assessing the best and worst-case scenarios for South Africa, alongside a ‘baseline forecast’ that provides a middle ground, we get an idea of how the rest of this lockdown could play out.
For the most part, it’s not pretty. A best-case scenario predicts that SA will be in a stricter lockdown level by January, before returning to Level 1 regulations the month after. It’s hoped that ALL restrictions could be lifted by April depending on vaccine uptake, before another wave – albeit a milder one – hits our shores. From September onwards, the optimistic view says it’ll be plain sailing.
However, the worst-case scenario is grim: A drop to Level 3 regulations in the new year, three months of tougher restrictions in the winter, and no sign of the lockdown lifting until 2023 all form this pessimistic outlook. The baseline forecast is only slightly better than that, and it suggests lockdown laws will remain in place for another ELEVEN months. Yikes…
Price Waterhouse Cooper believes that it will take until April 2022 for 70% of all South Africans to get vaccinated – a target President Cyril Ramaphosa wanted to achieve by the end of 2021. Most of the forecasts, however, depend on the number of people who choose to get jabbed.
“Based on current vaccination estimates, we expect some form of lockdown restrictions until deep into 2022, though with hopes that an increase in the adult vaccine rate could end lockdowns by 2022, Q2.”
“Our estimates indicate it will take another five months before 70% of the adult population Is fully vaccinated. This period could be shorter if the current panic around the Omicron variant inspires more people to get their first and/or second doses.”PWC lockdown calendar