It’s understood that the rate of new cases and test positivity have both started to decrease –
Photo: File
It’s understood that the rate of new cases and test positivity have both started to decrease –
Photo: File
Cigars and champagne all round, then? Leading experts now state that the fifth wave of COVID infections in South Africa is on the turn, after new cases peaked and began declining in the past week.
Fifth wave has peaked in South Africa
The fifth wave was unique, in the sense that it was driven by sub-variants of an existing mutation. Previously, each new wave has been fuelled by a completely new variant – but Omicron has been something of a game-changer.
First discovered in November 2021, this particular COVID-19 strain appears to lead to more favourable outcomes. Healthcare systems have not been overwhelmed in the two Omicron-driven waves, thanks largely to high levels of population immunity in South Africa.
How bad was the fifth wave of COVID-19 in SA? Not very…
That’s why experts are relatively bullish about the latest figures out of Mzansi. Ridhwaan Suliman is a researcher for the CSIR, and his COVID-19 graphs have become the stuff of legend on social media. If he’s happy, we’re happy…
- According to Suliman’s data, the fifth wave also saw a major drop in hospitalisations and deaths, in comparison to previous resurgences.
“The fifth wave of COVID-19 infections in South Africa has peaked! Driven by BA.4 and BA.5 ‘Variants of Concern’, infections have now officially peaked with the test positivity rate steadily decreasing again: The seven-day-average stands at 23%.”
“Promisingly too, hospitalisations and deaths in SA over this wave, thus far, have remained low. We believe there has been a high number of infections (underestimated by the data), but significantly fewer hospitalisations and deaths due to high level of population immunity.”
Ridhwaan Suliman
Omicron sub-variants ‘set to spread globally’
Interestingly enough, the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants are now likely to drive a wave of new infections in Europe during their summer months. That’s the forecast shared by Belgian biostatistician Tom Wenseleers, who also hopes there will be a ‘limited impact’ on the continent.
In S Africa the BA.4/5 wave has peaked already. Luckily, hospitalisations there appear to remain low – the case hosp ratio is lower than before. So BA.4/5 will likely drive a summer wave in Europe, but hopefully with limited impact on hospitalisations. https://t.co/vJrNauxiwJ pic.twitter.com/lM5hOeJUZd
— Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers) May 18, 2022
