COVID-19 Fifth wave test positivity

The fifth wave of COVID doesn’t look like it will reach the same levels witnessed in December 2021 – Photo: Stock Image / Pixabay

Fifth wave update: FIVE encouraging signs from SA’s latest COVID data

The fifth wave of COVID may have caused a spike in cases, but underneath the surface, the data in South Africa doesn’t look too glum.

COVID-19 Fifth wave test positivity

The fifth wave of COVID doesn’t look like it will reach the same levels witnessed in December 2021 – Photo: Stock Image / Pixabay

Despite cases rising across the country, the devil remains in the detail of our latest COVID figures. South Africa is currently in the midst of a fifth wave, but some of the numbers are now starting to look quite promising.

Fifth wave latest: Some encouraging signs from COVID data

Research from our top COVID experts has painted a clear picture of where this fifth wave is heading. Although new infections and test positivity levels have jumped in recent weeks, indicators from Gauteng – and even further afield – may put a few concerned minds at ease.

  • The growth rate for the seven-day averages of new cases appears to have ‘reached a peak’ in SA’s most densely-populated province.
  • According to NICD data, all hospital variables in Gauteng ‘declined marginally’ in the last 24 hours.
  • This follows a national pattern identified by the CSIR’s Ridhwaan Suliman, who noted that hospitalisation rates had ‘slowed’ in the past week.
  • Although deaths are increasing in Gauteng, COVID expert Pieter Streicher says this is only by ‘a very low amount’.
  • When compared to the same point of the Omicron wave, there are FEWER cases, hospitalisations, and ICU beds. That’s great news…

Streicher, a research associate for the University of Johannesburg, is confident in his assessment that the fifth wave is now running out of steam. He believes this will be the ‘blueprint’ for further resurgences elsewhere, with December’s Omicron peak remaining unchallenged:

“Gauteng is giving some indication of what other countries can expect with future resurgences in the absence of a new variant other than Omicron. Although Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 deaths will increase a bit further, the wave attenuation since Delta is significant.”

“All COVID variables we are seeing now are well below December’s original Omicron levels, which were well below July’s Delta levels. Experts continue to call for the dropping of restrictions, which are at odds with our current understanding of the pandemic.”

Pieter Streicher