load shedding

An illuminated signboard on display outside the Eskom Regional Office in Braamfontein, Johannesburg during load-shedding (rolling blackout) on 31 January, 2023. (Photo by – / AFP)

Chilling Forecast: Eskom says winter could see daily power cuts up to Stage 8

The worst-case scenario of Stage 8 power cuts looms, with potential daily outages if unplanned outages average 18 000MW.

load shedding

An illuminated signboard on display outside the Eskom Regional Office in Braamfontein, Johannesburg during load-shedding (rolling blackout) on 31 January, 2023. (Photo by – / AFP)

Power utility Eskom painted a gloomy picture of the coming winter during the State of the System and Winter Outlook briefing on Thursday, 18 May. Load shedding could hit unprecedented levels during the cold season, and the power system is severely strained.

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‘Worst-case scenario’: Stage 8 load shedding

The outlook suggests that if the grid loses 15 000MW to breakdowns or another form of capacity unavailability, Stage 5 load shedding could be “predominantly implemented” for the winter period. If breakdowns reach 16 500MW, Stage 6 power cuts will be required.

“If unplanned outages averages to 18 000MW, loadshedding might be required every day and might be implemented up to Stage 8,” said the power utility.

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Eskom stressed that an 18 000MW outage that leads to Stage 8 was the worst-case scenario, which it was “working tirelessly” to avoid at all costs.

Eskom relying on OCGTs to keep high load shedding stages away

As the power system is severely constrained and with the risk of continued elevated load shedding in the winter, Eskom said it would continue to lean heavily on its diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to prevent high stages of load shedding.

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Four major power-generating units are currently down for extended outages. Eskom Head of Generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said the unavailability of three units at Kusile and Koeberg 1 means that 3008MW (Three stages of load shedding) of capacity has been removed from the grid.

Nxumalo said work is being done to bring the Kusile units back by November, while Unit 1 at Koeberg should return to service on 14 September.

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