fifth wave omicron covid

Electron microscope picture of the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 infections from the US National Institutes of Health – Photo: JCQ Smer / Flickr

Expert who predicted Omicron’s mildness says SA is ‘NOT heading for fifth wave’

Is it wishful thinking, or does Dr. Angelique Coetzee have a point here? The well-known virus expert isn’t fazed by rising COVID figures.

fifth wave omicron covid

Electron microscope picture of the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 infections from the US National Institutes of Health – Photo: JCQ Smer / Flickr

Former SA Medical Association Chair, Angelique Coetzee, has built a reputation for herself over the past few months. The outspoken expert stuck to her guns during the onset of Omicron, repeating her claims that the country could ‘ride out’ a surge in infections over the Christmas period – and now she’s skeptical about the onset of a fifth wave.

Is South Africa heading for a fifth wave?

South Africa saw COVID infections almost double in the past 24-hour period, sparking fears that a resurgence of the virus is now well underway in South Africa. Although no completely new variant has yet been detected by our experts, several ‘sub-mutations’ from the same Omicron lineage have been identified.

These ‘branches’ of Omicron carry transmission advantages, and are likely responsible for a recent rise in infections. However, Dr. Coetzee does not believe that there’s any reason to panic just yet…

Ex-SAMA chair plays down threat of COVID resurgence

The medical authority believes that the current increase in new cases is down to the fact South Africa has experienced a long weekend, with people meeting up and abandoning health protocols during Easter. In fact, Coetzee went as far as to suggest that there should have been a ‘bigger increase’ than what we’ve seen so far.

  • In her book, only a non-Omicron variant can spark a fifth wave:

“What we are currently seeing is what we expected to see after the long weekend. We expected to see a much higher increase in numbers, because people were not wearing masks and they are abandoning non-pharmaceutical interventions.”

“Omicron has sub-variants and some of those sub-variants are more fast-spreading than the original Omicron. But this is not saying that we are now going into the fifth wave. For the fifth wave to happen, it needs to be a totally new variant.”

Angelique Coetzee

Other experts remain cautious…

Louis Rossouw, a member of the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group, is slightly more concerned about the latest trends we are seeing – and his data points to a increase in numbers across ALL fronts: