Batsirai: SA ‘LIKELY’ to be affected by tropical cyclone

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has said that the country is not yet in imminent danger from Batsirai, a tropical cyclone which is currently affecting the Southern Indian Ocean.

Batsirai continues to be a highly significant tropical storm system within the Southern Indian Ocean. It is the second named system of the 2021/2022 season for the South-West Indian Ocean domain. The cyclone is currently associated with sustained winds of about 140 km/h and is located at 17.0°S / 061.2°E, moving slowly south-westwards at 18.5 km/h (10 knots).

SA NOT YET IN DANGER FROM BATSIRAI 

The SAWS’s Kevin Rae said despite significant recent advances in Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP) and supercomputing, it is not yet possible to accurately determine whether tropical cyclone Batsirai will eventually affect South Africa, either directly or indirectly.  

“The latest ensemble forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provided a good idea of the most likely path and movement of Batsirai during the coming 5 days. Suffice to say that, at least in the days ahead, there is no immediate weather-related threat for South Africa, in relation to this tropical cyclone.” 

Rae said that the latest track forecast issued by RSMC La Reunion suggested that over the next few days, Batsirai should pass north of Mauritius and Reunion islands. Rain bands around the periphery of Batsirai however may well affect these islands.

“By contrast, it seems highly likely that the eastern coastline of Madagascar (particularly the central part of the coast) will bear the brunt of strong, damaging winds and torrential rainfall, as Batsirai makes landfall at some stage in the latter half of Saturday, 5 February 2022,” he said.

The weather service also cautioned that very rough seas, combined with storm surge, tend to be more extreme on the southern (poleward) side of tropical storms in this region of the world. The steep, rugged topography of the mountains extending along the eastern coastline of
Madagascar, will no doubt, worsen the risk of rainfall as well as flash-floods and mudslides.

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