People casting their votes at Fusion Secondary was School in Lotus Garden, Pretoria. South Africa. 08/05/2019. Ntswe Mokoena / GCIS
2021 Elections: New poll reveals DA ‘may lose a quarter of its support’
Alongside the DA, the ANC is also on course to lose a chunk of its supporters – but the EFF continue to accumulate more floating voters…
People casting their votes at Fusion Secondary was School in Lotus Garden, Pretoria. South Africa. 08/05/2019. Ntswe Mokoena / GCIS
A new poll commissioned by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) makes for grim reading if you’re part of the DA – and the ANC don’t really fare much better. Both of the two major parties are set to lose a significant portion of the vote they gained in the last local elections, as some members of the electorate seek a new political home for 2021.
2021 Elections poll: The DA, ANC facing loss of supporters
The latest data shows that the DA will struggle to get near the 26.9% of voters it wooed five years ago, with only 20% of respondents claiming they’d back the Blues this time around. That will see their base decrease by more than a QUARTER. It’s also down slightly on their performance in the 2019 Elections, where the DA received 20.77% of the vote.
The ANC, meanwhile, looks set to get above 50% – but only just. This would represent their lowest-ever vote share, but it still keeps the ruling party above the halfway mark. In fact, the only one of the top three parties set to enhance their growth is the EFF. According to the IRR poll, around one in nine voters will back the Red Berets on Monday 1 November.
Latest polls for the 2021 Elections
A recently-commissioned IPSOS poll also predicted a dip in support for both the DA and the ANC, while forecasting an increased voter share for the EFF. If clear patterns are emerging, then the two traditional powerhouses of South African politics will find themselves in a pickle, allowing smaller parties to sweep up the floating voters.
| Party | Vote share in 2016 | Vote share in 2019 | IRR-predicted vote share in 2021 |
| ANC | 53.91% | 57.5% | 50% |
| DA | 26.9% | 20.77% | 20% |
| EFF | 8.19% | 10.8% | 11% |
ANC, EFF, and the DA to battle it out
Interestingly enough, around 19% of respondents in the IRR poll would either vote for a different minority party, or not vote at all. Roughly one in five South African voters will not back the ‘big three’ on Monday 1 November.
New forces such as ActionSA, GOOD, and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) are also emboldened by the political landscape, just three weeks before the polls open. However, elections aren’t won via questionnaires – they are decided by what happens at the ballot box, and a lot can change in 21 days…
